Tuesday 2 June 2009

Gasoil a sell? Where and when are the cash coming in?

The theme in london am this morning is one of profit taking, small but going on. GBP, Oil, Gold. Oil vol has gone down to low 40s in the prompt, which incidentally was the level it was at when SFOT moved across from rates where 3m10yr straddle was trading at 13%. The switch in vol was a shocker for SFOT then, however, this time round, it seems this is a little low. As flat price continues to go higher with the global recovery/inflation/money flow theme, vol coming off suggests a comfortable market where market participants will continue to buy into the story. The amount of cash sitting on the sideline should not be as much as in april but they are by no means close to fully invested. This worries SFOT as to how high S&P, oil, gold will go before it comes off again. If equities continue its climb higher, consumer confidence will surely be back and Mr and Mrs Smith who has been shut of the property market will start looking again. This morning's housing data in UK already shows this and SFOT is aware that singapore, another country with hyper inflated property prices at its peak, has seen some recent positive activities as well. Equity induced recovery on the way?
CL1 Vol
Uk Mortage Approval

Back to oil RV, middle distillate are strong this morning, and SFOT can only attribute this to consumers stopping in and some profit taking. The pool looks so ugly that even if some business in Asia is taking cracks higher, SFOT has no problem selling into this strength, and this is exactly what he will do.

Front Euro gasoil crack

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