Data Day

It's DOE day and i can't help but think the significance of this is now reaching the equivalent of our monthly NFP, only that we have this on a weekly basis. That China has begun its strategic oil reserves should be a significant boost to the market in a neutral/bull run, but alas, the market seems very tired of late. Whilst API reported a massive 8mio bbl build in crude stocks, of which 2mio was in Padd2, SFOT is skeptical to use API as a direction for today's number. History shows that discrepancies can be big and frequent between API's number and DOE.

We will concentrate on not just crude number today but Gasoline as well of course as we approach refinery turnaround peaks in the US. That April RBOB crack is now higher than March RBOB cracks is starting to make more sense to SFOT. Whilst SFOT cannot see Gasoline crack recover to extreme levels in the 2007, Gasoline cracks may have some more upside to run.

With regards to wti-brt relationship, SFOT finds the volatility of the differentials amazing, compared to the historical volatility of the individual contracts. More work needs to be done here but certainly an area to keep SFOT occupied for a while.

In the mean time, Arshavin is the new number 23 in Arsenal, finally. Whether this saves Arsenal's season remains to be seen. However, drawing with Everton and West Ham has not made fans like me happy so a new big signing may just be what we need to boost some much needed confidence.