tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-70925182939248164072012-01-19T07:14:52.554ZSFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.comBlogger951100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-53218021905897718192012-01-19T06:52:00.004Z2012-01-19T07:14:52.566Z

So another day where Asia opens off to the races. Base metals, energy, equities all reacting to what is an equivalent of a 50bp cut by China in their reverse repo operation which has been rumoured for a while. Also to a smaller extent the mere 58% drop in Goldman earnings, which is less than what most had expected. However, note that liquidity is again very thin and SFOT has quickly learned that

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-48086973840441515312012-01-18T05:52:00.006Z2012-01-18T06:20:42.655Z

Whilst we are all buried in trying to find out the results of the next bono or btp auctions, perhaps it is timely to point out how the demand side of europe is doing at this point in time. As GDP, retail sales, IFO etc are good indicators, i suspect it would be helpful to a few macro punters to look at a more timely indicator of demand/supply as indicated by the structure of oil for example. Even

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-76068315278719546572012-01-13T05:40:00.008Z2012-01-13T06:47:30.708Z

Happy new year to all. Having endured much turbulence in the oil space in 2011, SFOT has emerged relatively ok and is now residing in another part of the world where trading the oil market means going to bed at 3am. He has much to adjust to but one thing that needs no adjustment is the random volatility of crude prices. Just when prices look to be dominated by potential Iranian crisis, daily

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-64986648678089155802010-04-20T17:58:00.005+01:002010-04-20T18:34:11.052+01:00

It's only Tuesday and SFOT is already feeling like a Friday, fairly drained out with dramtic happenings everywhere. First up, the famous GS vs SEC headline, taking WTI down by 2.5% on Friday and continuing the slide into Monday. One wonder why equites were down less than oil on that Friday. Does GS fighting a case for the next 2 year actually mean we lose 1 million per day or demand in oil? Then

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-77065212069137411042010-04-14T10:41:00.007+01:002010-04-15T12:07:41.817+01:00

The move in timespreads in crude has been the major talking point. What looked like a healthy correction initially quickly turned into a terrible stoploss situation for market participants. Trading spreads in the past week had a reminiscence of late 2008/early 2009. The rebound proved equally dramatic yesterday and the volatility of these spreads are creating a havoc situation for SFOT and his

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-49921743939205775652010-04-08T12:04:00.005+01:002010-04-08T13:11:07.040+01:00

Greetings to all. It has been a while and SFOT has finally settled down enough to think of restarting this blog. It will probably not be on a daily basis, however, i will do my best to provide as much basis for discussions as possible. Quite a lot has changed since the last post back in November. SFOT has begun his first full year with his new firm, has broken a rib while snowboarding in Japan,

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-35570679406095392282009-11-24T13:45:00.004Z2009-11-24T15:07:10.679Z

It has been a while since a post and the only excuse SFOT can conjur up with is that he has been bugged down by systems issues on a daily basis. The wonders of technology. Has anyone ever hoped for things to stay simple once in a while? Looking at crude prices, we really haven't done much in the past few weeks, inspite of gold and pther commodities having a great time. In truth, the physical

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-6090730513130265322009-11-11T11:49:00.008Z2009-11-11T12:46:13.457Z

Non inspirational. The lack of convictionn and breakout has led to few opportunities Oil directionaly. The range 75-80 seems to be holding very well recently. The usually disciplined sfot opted to go against his wiser option of not getting involved until a clearer trend and it has not paid off, as he suffered what he suspects many counterparts have in so many instances, buying the highs and

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-72251255549004571272009-11-05T12:29:00.005Z2009-11-05T13:07:04.576Z

SFOT's interpretation of the DOE data is that it was a non event in most part, except for the middle distillate draw where heating oil stocks were taken down. That should some support for the specific product, especially if we do get some sort of cold snap in the next few weeks, both in Nymex heat and European Gasoil. Note that distillate forward days cover seems to have peaked, and refinery run

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-48767316397745753332009-11-04T11:42:00.004Z2009-11-04T12:45:52.874Z

Its been 1 week since i had something in this blog, and this is not down to laziness i assure, nor is this down to absolute boredom in the market. Getting used to new sytem, new workflow and a new schedule is taking a little longer than expected. However, views on the market does not change and SFOT, like many others, are intrigued at the crazy turnaround in risk. Just 2 days ago, VIX was

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-60600615193680580422009-10-28T11:58:00.004Z2009-10-28T12:37:21.509Z

A risk off day here at mid-day london. Various bloggers have pointed out the downside risk so far this am, for eg, Gartman pointing out the triple top in EURJPY, Macroman on the eurusd put skew. EUR under pressure from low capital base banks getting hit big time, not to mention the 'stellar' performance of equities so far today in Europe. How does this translate into Oil? Given the financial

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-83198409850032798782009-10-27T10:46:00.004Z2009-10-27T15:32:10.933Z

It's a pleasure to be back in after a fantastic summer break. The trouble is, after too much fun, getting back into the market is tough. It is even tougher when market seems to be surprising many fellow bloggers consistently. For eg, the GBP, q3 earnings from the banks to Amazon.com. Therefore, as one might have expected, SFOT is treading this treacherous water very slowly and carefully. Any

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-66160794537978975032009-07-06T10:56:00.003+01:002009-07-06T11:05:05.194+01:00

SFOT has returned from a short break, but this will be his last post before taking a prolonged period of break until september, when he will reenter the market with a different employer. Good luck to all until then. Here's a chart which should speak by itself. The ride this summer would be a rough one.

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-83122774355952872032009-06-24T10:11:00.003+01:002009-06-24T11:06:40.215+01:00

Bearish set of data from APIs, looking at a 3.6mio bbl build in gasoline and a 2.4mio bbl build in distillates, coupled with lower implied demand for gasoline. Little wonder gasoline cracks continue to take a bath today. Perhaps a major correction is now underway for Gasoline, as rising prices over the past few months start to eat into its own demand. Whether this translate into this pm's data or

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-862177031740288012009-06-23T10:46:00.004+01:002009-06-23T11:53:35.058+01:00

Its hotting up. S&P closed well below 900. Volume is apparently not very high and one doubt much will happen before FOMC. Vols in all asset classes are bid up into FOMC meeting tomorrow. While commodity complex had a rough day yesterday, Oil and Gold stands out most. Given they have been clearly the leader in the global reflation play that started back in March, it make sense for them to lose

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-39874455753990301272009-06-22T10:49:00.004+01:002009-06-22T11:20:56.773+01:00

A big week ahead, and has already started with a bang. Whether commodities are leading equities or the other way round matters not, as if this is to be a beginning of a major correction, be long of nothing. Whether position is taken off pre FOMC or cashed out for half year end, the case that this may be the correction bears have been waiting for is perhaps stronger this time, especially when SFOT

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-37274457795782491422009-06-19T14:50:00.001+01:002009-06-19T14:52:00.657+01:00

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-90560267896584456522009-06-18T12:56:00.004+01:002009-06-18T13:04:44.511+01:00

SFOT is a little tied up this am, and thus the post is lat and will be a short one. Gasoline cracks have eased off since DOE came out yesterday confirming the relative increase in inventories. Indeed, days forward cover of Gasoline is now starting to reverse a little. However, what bothers SFOT is that demand is also on the way up, which means prices at current retail level has not hurt US

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-88079826061098622072009-06-17T10:59:00.008+01:002009-06-17T11:40:52.372+01:00

Option expiry on Nymex WTI today. The open interest numbers reported on Nymex $5 either side of 70 is quite low at this stage, and thus could be a fairly uninspiring expiry, although OTC interests may yet give today a bit of volatility. Weak across the complex is the theme this am, much like yesterday morning in London, only for prices to shoot above $72 once US came in. However, SFOT is aware of

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-50849675039111909172009-06-16T11:04:00.005+01:002009-06-16T11:29:11.315+01:00

There is not too much changes in the energy complex today, in particular flat price. With USD getting a bid, and the obvious break in eurusd in a classic head and shoulder development, Crude came under some pressure but holding out this $70 handle is still a sign of strength on it own and the current macro theme remains the same. Although there has been a little correction in the rates world,

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-82939366826395470982009-06-12T10:42:00.004+01:002009-06-12T11:46:56.114+01:00

Market actions suggest we are at a little cross roads this morning. USTs rallied into the close, and continues its rally over night and asian hours. This is keeping a cap on the performance of risk asset including Gold, Oil and giving USD a little boost. Given the HF community's current theme is the reflation trade, there must a quite a few shorts in USTs currently, and perhaps a little squeeze

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-57087284870102143562009-06-11T11:01:00.003+01:002009-06-11T12:10:40.044+01:00

SFOT is aware that the release of China's trade numbers overnight has been one of the most highly anticipated number so far this month. Therfore, the less than expected trade balance, topped by much lower exports and imports may be of interest to some macro punters in the commodity space. Exports suggests world trade may not be as rosy as the greenshoot /reflation story suggests, however it is

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-79276549064283984642009-06-10T10:50:00.005+01:002009-06-10T11:44:30.835+01:00

A number of factors contribute to the overnight strength in Crude and product prices. 1) The strong API data on crude oil. 2) Weaker USD. As for pt 1), a draw of almost 6mio bbl is likely to put fear in players who are short the front line WTI spreads, in particular weak shorts who are just riding on the index rolls ongoing currently. Indeed, the N9/Q9 spread has already jumped 30c from its

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-9353755122633269902009-06-09T11:04:00.005+01:002009-06-09T11:33:09.658+01:00

Flat price seems to be afraid of the $70 mark in front line Brent and WTI these few sessions. From past experiences, the market tends to fly when it finally break through the up or downside. It is now clear speculators are positioned for the upside medium to longer term as the reflation/rate hike/recovery trade continues. Perhaps a self fulfilling resistance when everyone is trading their gamma

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-62809608674547619272009-06-08T10:57:00.003+01:002009-06-08T11:28:49.242+01:00

Crude is weak this am, led by the middle of the barrel products, especially Gasoil. In relative value terms, SFOT is positioned rightly being short cracks in middle distillates. Sources in the physical space suggests to him there is much in storage, and the widening contango helps, but storgage space is drying up and there is no end user demand. Another instance of weakening demand is happening

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-58904253180947407842009-06-05T10:25:00.006+01:002009-06-05T11:07:10.309+01:00

So, a certain analyst changed his oil price forecast for the year, stopping out of his short and calling for higher year end prices, WTI rallies, mid term calls rallies 3 vol points. Sounds like groundhog day to anyone trading WTI in 2008? Well well. SFOT has seen this many times, and if anything is to go by, today's weakness due to producer hedging will only be short lived, as speculators will

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-61416208435557323632009-06-04T10:28:00.002+01:002009-06-04T11:26:27.085+01:00

The latest set of data from DOE continues to show weakening supply/demand dynamics for the barrel, with the exception of Gasoline. Distillate forward days cover continues to hover at multiyear highs, with demand not looking likely to recover anytime soon, while gasoline days forward cover looks relatively healthy for this time of the year. We seem to be at a cross road here as far as Gasoline is

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-9121043996605835052009-06-03T10:21:00.006+01:002009-06-03T10:50:04.128+01:00

A short post this morningThe set of API numbers were not exactly inspiring, and the catching number is the big build in distillate stocks, with falling implied demand. Middle distillate cracks reacted and lost around $0.50/bbl overnight. However, SFOT is aware there has been a lot of consumers stopping into this rally the past few days, and distillate cracks remain well off their lows. SFOT is

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-4823678465134760592009-06-02T10:19:00.004+01:002009-06-02T11:10:24.124+01:00

The theme in london am this morning is one of profit taking, small but going on. GBP, Oil, Gold. Oil vol has gone down to low 40s in the prompt, which incidentally was the level it was at when SFOT moved across from rates where 3m10yr straddle was trading at 13%. The switch in vol was a shocker for SFOT then, however, this time round, it seems this is a little low. As flat price continues to go

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-12703025332925893532009-06-01T11:14:00.008+01:002009-06-01T11:53:41.727+01:00

Its June already, the sun is shining down in london this early summer, and all seems well in the markets. Everything you look or touch is going up, and almost anything is going up against the USD. As WTI inches so close to $70, SFOT has to confess he had stopped out of his CLZ0 short position last week but has no desire to jump into a long position in flat price just because financial players are

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-89949575351965101702009-05-29T11:02:00.005+01:002009-05-29T11:34:48.581+01:00

The theme for the past few days has been rising long interest rates in the US, particularly the long end. Just 2 days ago, S&P closed below 900 as yield begun its ascend, troubling some investors that rising long term rates at this juncture could harm recovery. Just where the recovery is coming from is another question SFOT could not bring to discuss at this moment. Having met a few contact from

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-12470986686546981832009-05-28T10:35:00.008+01:002009-05-28T11:17:47.503+01:00

SFOT did some work and found that a lot of the strength in the front end of the Jet fuel curve has been due to physical traders buying Jet fuel for storage. The recent gasoline strength has cleared a lot of stocks in gasoline, particularly in ARA region. With spare storage space and an ever widening contango in middle distillates, particularly in Jet Fuel until recently, little wonder there is so

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-29497009913651526782009-05-27T11:03:00.009+01:002009-05-27T11:47:05.450+01:00

Back from long sunny weekend in Budapest, where things are beautiful and the word recession does not seem to exist in both sides of the Danube river, SFOT sees nothing but gloomy London, sub 20 degrees and raining. Though the one thing that has held British pride forever is the GBP, which is showing unbelievable strength. Readers will know SFOT has dipped into a small long in the GBP/USD pair and

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-74394485569391586242009-05-22T11:12:00.004+01:002009-05-22T12:05:06.147+01:00

SFOT is a little lazy today and looking forward to another long weekend in glorious sunshine. The strength in GBP and EUR vs USD continues today, or rather the weakness of the USD, and we shall see oil and GOLD move up accordingly. Who knows what this afternoon will bring given its position squaring time before the long weekend but one thing is for sure, more volatility will come this pm, and

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-52014544320421676092009-05-21T11:04:00.007+01:002009-05-21T11:36:13.391+01:00

2 quick things this morning. Correlations are kinda broken down, with Gold, Eur/Usd, Oil and stocks all going different directions from each other. The standout move has been the GBP. SFOT is aware that a lot of macro type traders/investors are leaning short and feeling the pain. And it has only given back a mere figure after a negative outlook by S&P on UK debt. Perhaps a short term punt towards

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-86186854449313892692009-05-20T10:10:00.007+01:002009-05-20T11:00:06.738+01:00

An ultra bullish set of API numbers overnight set the tone for CLN7 maintaining above $60 as well as another strong day for RBOB crack spread. The latest draw in crude oil would be confirmed by DOE today(according to estimates), which could signal we have seen the peak in inventories in crude oil. Does the narrowing contango in both land locked WTI and waterborned Brent makes sense now? While

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-27747230675283722172009-05-19T10:37:00.006+01:002009-05-19T11:28:35.806+01:00

The extent of the move in equities was highly impressive, and even more so when it was done on pretty much no major news. The theme from yesterday continues into the morning here in London, risk assets seems bid(equities, GBP,AUD,BRL, Oil) while risk averse assets stayed sideline(Gold, JPY). The move yesterday on no news perhaps shows investors/traders afraid to sell into a market which has hurt

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-77903463445376581382009-05-18T11:42:00.006+01:002009-05-18T12:06:55.520+01:00

So the correction in oil begins right after option expiry, or have i spoken too soon? Reading a few articles from sell side and buyside analysts, this week seems to be a big week for equities. Where we finish the week seems to be a determinant as to where we will head going forward. Gold seems to have a little breakdown in correlation on its own vs equities, oil and eur and perhaps that is where

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-26558350924380961092009-05-14T11:29:00.008+01:002009-05-14T12:04:39.132+01:00

SFOT was proven wrong yesterday, when a seemingly bullish set of numbers by DOE could not take $60 out in CL1. The same reason that brought CL1 to $60 is the same reason that is bringing it back down below 57, and hence the questions posted yesterday has been answered. Where next? Looking at the SPX chart, sitting nicely above its 20day moving average. Perhaps if broken, it will take a dive

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-22991686885295936722009-05-13T10:36:00.003+01:002009-05-13T12:22:22.669+01:00

Distillate cracks are under pressure early london morning, and rightly so given that API data shows a large crude draw of 3mio barrels. A closer look to the API numbers shows something amiss. Crude has drawn but the implied demand has decreased by around 1mio barrel, while refinery activities are also down by about 250k. SFOT is treating this data with caution, and looks to DOE for more clues.

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-14520955700419300032009-05-12T10:22:00.007+01:002009-05-12T10:58:44.424+01:00

Just when we thought things might not look as pretty as it is, we get a crazy run in crude oil prices first thing london morning. The way crack spreads and time spreads are behaving suggests that it is not consumers that are buying but specs. At the time of writing, we have flat price in WTI approaching $60 fast. This seems to be driven by a comment from IEA chief that the demand forecast is

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-31753812514482211612009-05-11T11:59:00.004+01:002009-05-11T12:44:31.550+01:00

Revisiting sweet sour spreads differentials developments. So the press has not mentioned OPEC for a while and they have seemingly been cutting production in sour crude and raising their OSP(official selling price) to reflect the cut in supply. This is one factor that has kept the sweet sour differential in check. Brent-Dubai spreads, as per chart below, tends to be a very good gauge of sweet sour

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-47066301369606506552009-05-08T10:25:00.005+01:002009-05-08T11:19:54.375+01:00

Perhaps this bull market in Oil we have seen is attributed to the SPX behaving a little looney recently. The real strength lies in the Gasoline market. Readers will know SFOT had pointed out the strength in demand/supply in the US market. However, a look in the European Gasoline market tells a simlar story. One should note, and experienced oil industry players will know that Europe is a net

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-17300908721647421992009-05-07T10:06:00.003+01:002009-05-07T10:54:57.186+01:00

So another day, another rally in asian equities, followed by european equities, then oil, then gold. While SFOT is not any expert in the equity market, he has some industry contacts ranging from short term momentum punters to old fashion value based investors. He has seen these value based investors raking it in, happy to argue that stocks are cheap on valuation and buying anywhere 3-4 weeks ago

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-90687237724834655482009-05-06T11:39:00.008+01:002009-05-06T12:29:52.064+01:00

The star of the day has to be Singapore's STI index. A whoppy 22% in 5 days. If there is any bigger representation of irrationality anyone, pls let me know. SFOT is also puzzled by the strength of this island state's currency. Surely a massively export dependent country cannot live long with a currency that strong? Well well, another day, another confirmation that fundamental investment in this

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-23445085451343066472009-05-05T11:37:00.006+01:002009-05-05T12:06:50.226+01:00

2 weeks away from the market and nothing has changed. Equities are still bid, forcefully. No bad news seems to be able to take it lower. Perhaps its interesting that a old timer colleague of mine pointed out that it is when the mutual fund managers are finally fully invested that we will see a new low. Sources from Asia are telling me these managers have been buying, not wanting to be the last

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-33834232732127482902009-04-17T10:34:00.000+01:002009-04-17T11:19:34.822+01:00

Expiry of K9 options now out of the way, SFOT reckons M9 options would be a bit trickier given the open interest in June is historically much larger than May. Large layers of calls out to 60 and puts down to 40, with the biggest open interest at $50 again combining both calls and puts. The expiry of K9 futures in 2 days time may present some wild move in K9/M9 spread. It has broken through -$2

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-10547668986466438782009-04-16T11:12:00.000+01:002009-04-16T12:13:15.512+01:00

It's been a relatively quiet morning in london so far, no real change in structure and markets seemingly pausing for thoughts, though may not be for long. Perhaps consumers activities this week had run out of steam temporarily. DOE numbers were not bullish. The crude numbers confirmed what SFOT has found in the API numbers, i,e floating storage coming onshore. Crude stocks does not look like it

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-20777304500351091972009-04-15T10:53:00.000+01:002009-04-15T11:39:09.921+01:00

2 things this morning.1) US retails sales headline numbers were appalling. Digging deeper into the numbers where energy is concerned, gasoline station receipts were down around 35%. However, note that prices were around 50% higher on average in March last year vs this year, which from simple calculation will give us an increase demand of Gasoline by 15% YoY. This is just the first step of the

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-71147634435702688862009-04-14T11:13:00.000+01:002009-04-14T12:31:03.972+01:00

SFOT has decided to take the Easter long weekend off for the first time and ventured into some sort of hippie scene up North in the UK where there exist a famous football club and a somewhat odd band called the beatles came from. While the scene is hippie and alternative, SFOT has been offered some very interesting and creative view of things surrounding our everyday lives. Stepping back into

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-39046613663396810522009-04-09T10:14:00.000+01:002009-04-09T11:12:53.982+01:00

This morning, flat price is strong in crude oil while middle distillate cracks have given back the gains they made yesterday over the excitement of a draw and somewhat better looking demand numbers. As suspected, most of these draw were attributed to increased exports of diesel. The chart below shows total distillate stocks and the diesel component within the reported headline number. Admittedly,

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-70143862777801325542009-04-08T16:45:00.000+01:002009-04-08T17:05:35.965+01:00

DOE numbers today were not bullish. Although crude stocks did not build by much, SFOT was hearing seasoned professionals in equities, exotics, fx etc shouting, " oh look at the draw in distillates" and "oh its only a 1.6mio bbl build in crude". Notice in the physical trading window time ( London 4pm-4.30) that prices went to the lows. That was a telling sign the punters were buying blind,

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-17850657293904577022009-04-08T10:02:00.000+01:002009-04-08T11:32:32.653+01:00

What a day yesterday was. If only SFOT had put all his posted views yesterday to positions in the market, he would have struck a winner in everything he opened. Life's not that straightforward i guess. So risk assets have given back some of their gains. Equities took a dive when Alcoa results disappointed. Gold got a small bid, Oil tanked but AUD and Rates hardly did much. German imports down

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-34724803681442881492009-04-07T10:11:00.000+01:002009-04-07T11:30:28.248+01:00

Today, SFOT would like to venture into the macro world and share some of his views(some of which he does have a position in). Stocks: BearishFrom a very simple standpoint, if earnings outlook is negative, dividends are getting cut and hence yield is less attractive, global trade slowing, GDP globally being slashed down and the end of recession not in sight( economists are even pushing their

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-77313621217055100702009-04-06T11:28:00.000+01:002009-04-06T12:51:00.992+01:00

Equities have still got a bid over the weekend, continuing its bear market rebound(or its bull run if you are in the other camp). Eur/USD has also edged back up above 1.35 and JPY shooting above 101, the combination is again giving oil prices the underlying bid tone to begin the week. The more eye catching move in comodities have been Gold in the last few sessions. It seems there is now a view

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-72471777759562205622009-04-03T12:44:00.000+01:002009-04-03T13:12:17.032+01:00

Already a choppy trading day in Crude oil this london morning, with very low volumes. It looks again today will be dominated by the weight of the financial markets. More fresh money, more sell side analysts calling for the bottom of oil prices and indeed we shall go higher. If there is anymore doubt to physical dynamics still looking poor, one only need to look at spreads of prompt vs 6 months

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-80047452091739168922009-04-02T11:26:00.000+01:002009-04-02T12:21:13.549+01:00

DOE stats were fairly ugly in its own right. Start with crude oil. The amount of crude in US mirrors crude situation around the world. Perhaps we had a few major selling out some of the crude in the north sea last month that created some noise that floating stocks might be cleared. However, the truth is, crude oil is still in heavy contango and does not look like recovering anytime if stock

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-84014191529959171002009-04-01T11:04:00.000+01:002009-04-01T12:31:33.151+01:00

A bearish set of APIs dictated the relative underperformance of distillate vs crude oil this morning. The more eye catching data from APIs were probably the implied demand numbers for me. While distillate stocks built, distillate implied demand is falling off rapidly and if DOE stats were to mirror APIs, middle distillate crack spreads will fall hard and fast in the prompt months. However,

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-55881963167515428572009-03-31T10:45:00.000+01:002009-03-31T12:20:00.169+01:00

The first thing SFOT saw in his list of commentary is this. " We expect the prices to trade in a wide range $45-$55 in the coming weeks. Weak demand keeps it from rising above $55, weak supply keeps it from falling below $45." A very amateur sounding piece of advise from a typical research analyst whose only knowledge of oil is from the financial view point. Sadly speaking, SFOT agrees with his

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-87516130310649506812009-03-30T11:15:00.000+01:002009-03-30T12:22:22.636+01:00

Oil prices cannot be spared this nasty opening in Europe when every asset classes are down and safe haven currencies being bid (CHF, JPY). Both Brent and WTI are hovering just above 5$50 and the picture does not look healthy. 10 day avergae is broken and next test would be the 20 day moving average. Weekend did not provide any major news SFOT can identify that is oil specific and he shall leave

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-48819178743201304762009-03-27T11:12:00.000Z2009-03-27T11:51:21.392Z

As we approach the end of Q1, SFOT takes a look at the coming summer and what might be in store, starting with the Airline industry. Air france announced a loss for this fiscal year and predicts another loss for next year. Europe's biggest airline's results illustrate the tough environment for this industry in the next 2 years and with prices firming from here, no wonder their shares are down 6%

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-43992165993421574382009-03-26T10:46:00.000Z2009-03-26T12:27:14.563Z

Now that DOE data has confirmed SFOT's view, what next? A couple of things worth nothing. First, inventories in Cushing have drawn by 2mio barrels. Yes that is bullish on its own. However, PADD II, which includes Cushing, saw stocks build by 1.2mio bbl, and excluding Cushing will be well over 3mio barrel of build. Now that is not bullish, as refiners are cutting runs, either by way of turnaround

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-33169080169324837152009-03-25T10:58:00.000Z2009-03-25T12:04:38.631Z

SFOT likes the API data that just came out. Not because this has moved the market in his favour, but because the numbers make sense to him and falls into place his view of the oil market. Crude has build again by 4mio barrel week on week while both Gasoline and Distillate saw inventories drawing 800k and 1.5mio respectively. This smells of run cuts and the resulting numbers shows. Cracks are

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-279729837710507242009-03-24T10:30:00.000Z2009-03-24T11:45:25.404Z

Right, so equities rallied 7% yesterday, well done Obama and co for the ever complicated TALF and TARP plan. The feel good factor has spilled into the commodities market, in particular Oil. Just take a look at the 2 charts below. Comparing 1 week changes in the WTI curve. When funds and 'investors' piled their money into commodities, the back end rallied. This upmove in the past week has the same

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-88449820553821234102009-03-23T11:17:00.000Z2009-03-23T13:07:04.938Z

Consolidation has begun at these depressed prices in equities that companies are expanding and the big news this morning has been Suncor's aquisition of Petro-canada. From a non equity view point, this is a signal that oil sands are not a viable replacement for the conventional crude at current price levels and with equitiy prices at such depressed state, cross aquisition makes sense. SFOT

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-83244087005380147562009-03-20T10:17:00.000Z2009-03-20T12:14:50.830Z

Bring on Villareal! SFOT likes the Champions league draw very much and he is looking forward to a visit to the emirates stadium this time.Back to the energy space. April WTI expires today but SFOT is not a physical trader and shall not look too much into price action in that contract today, however, the spread in the physical market post expiry will post interest to him especially with regards to

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-57288465245975377352009-03-19T11:37:00.000Z2009-03-19T12:05:10.046Z

Yesterday's DOE stats are as bearish as it can get. Demand lower, Gasoline stocks build massively against expectations. That crude prices are still rallying hard this morning can only be attributed to related rallies in equities, eur/usd and specs. Can we now rally very hard towards $55 in WTI? Yes, only if Eur/Usd and Equities sustain this rally as WTI looks cheap compared to all other asset

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-26478501467188464342009-03-18T12:23:00.000Z2009-03-18T12:25:38.451Z

SFOT has been caught under the weather these 2 days and shall endeavour to return to action tomorrow. In the mean time, he is ecstatic about the way Arsenal came back from behind against Hull and now looks forward to a trip to Wembley next month.

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-39679311673450891362009-03-16T11:18:00.000Z2009-03-16T13:12:12.492Z

The important oil news over the weekend is clearly the decison by OPEC not to cut output further, but to increase compliance. This in effect is a cut on its own, though a small one. SFOT does not like to comment too much on these stuff and prefers to leave it to more seasoned OPEC watchers. However, a few little points worth noting. 1) The official communication does not seem to be as urgent as

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-78763246528864292282009-03-12T11:22:00.000Z2009-03-12T13:58:08.557Z

Yesterday's DOE release gave 2 new insights. 1) Crude stocks are no longer building at the pace seen over the past weeks, though stock levels are still very high compared to past few years. 2) The overhang is spreading to combined products, most notably middle distillates. Given that we are now seeing a good trend of Stock draw in crude, SFOT suspects that refining margins will start to drop off

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-85438840864768564112009-03-11T10:12:00.000Z2009-03-11T11:08:40.224Z

Surprising numbers in the API release yesterday, for a change at least. Gasoline building by 1.65mio bbl and distillate turned into a small seasonal draw. Little wonder Gasoline cracks have come off recent highs. However, supply side is one thing. Out of the whole barrel, days cover looks the least worse in Gasoline, especially into the driving season. SFOT is now tempted to use this dip to buy

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-33843476259875318302009-03-10T11:03:00.000Z2009-03-10T12:47:32.403Z

Crude oil prices have settled down a little today, after 2 days of brutal moves in a single WTI April 09 contract. While SFOT hears nothing to suggest any fundamental reason to be aggressively buying J9 WTI, the fact that every spread traders would like to be short JK spread is likely to point to stop losses in the spread and possibly more to come if we break higher on the one spread which is

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-77870988666201994352009-03-09T15:19:00.000Z2009-03-09T15:48:10.886Z

This market never fails to amaze. SFOT had chosen to take a cheeky short break to Amsterdam, but just 2 days away from the market and he is left puffing on his day 1 back. Yes equities are feeling nervy, gold has done some $20 back and forth, GBP has taken a bath, but nothing surprised me more than the sheer performance of the front month WTI contract. Not that it matters that this thing has

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-15280276019076695572009-03-05T10:49:00.000Z2009-03-05T11:59:34.258Z

A rather bearish set of DOE stats yesterday, in particular distillates. Although the tail end of the season, distillate stocks normally gets drawn down these few weeks but the past 2 weeks have seen massive build and does not bode well for distillate cracks. What is even more interesting is that input to refineries are starting to increase, and this is on the back of really high prompt Gasoline

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-29447119377861392742009-03-04T10:32:00.000Z2009-03-04T11:16:06.050Z

Overnight release of the API figures shows a continuing pattern of crude+gasoline drawing while distillates are building massively. If this pattern is to continue in the DOE release later today, we will see a big gasoline induced rally and spreads in crude oil to firm even more. Distillate cracks will continue to be sold into. The next few trading days will see the fund rolls in full swing and

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-25134019334194321212009-03-03T11:20:00.000Z2009-03-03T14:59:31.580Z

In the meltdown yesterday, SFOT finds 2 moves of interest within commodities and fx. 1) The fact that Gold has not been the safe haven asset over the past 3 trading days strikes me as that it is not going to push above $1000 this round amongst whisper of cash needed for margins and also india demand for gold has fallen out of bed. 2) Safe haven currencies CHF,JPY are not strengthening a lot in

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-78894338671997394812009-03-02T12:15:00.000Z2009-03-02T13:11:11.145Z

Black Monday theme today as of london lunchtime. Was the market prepared for this? I am not sure but looking around at the mood of colleagues and a round of chats, phonecalls and emails later seems to point to a mix of yes and no. Whatever the case, there is a downbeat mood everywhere and one wonders how many bulls are finally throwing in the towel. There seems to be many articles about this is

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-2926928955038791482009-02-27T11:39:00.000Z2009-02-27T12:34:58.293Z

The month end is bringing some rebalancing and profit taking in the market and crude oil prices look like its behaving in the same way as well on fairly low volume this london lunchtime. Given its almost the time of the month when the extremely transparent indices start rolling their futures, i thought the investigation of the USO roll by CFTC is worth mentioning. Whether anything comes out of

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-19468834794493690482009-02-26T11:56:00.000Z2009-02-26T13:09:21.612Z

The key stats from DOE yesterday are 1) Crude stocks in US are starting to move. Cushing stocks are not building anymore as storage is probably very much full and imports of crude are no longer astronomical. 2) Gasoline demand/supply dynamics in the US is very bullish. This is not a one off and implied demand on a 4 week moving averge basis is now higher than last year, while stocks are drawing

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-83809545703942318072009-02-25T10:43:00.000Z2009-02-25T11:30:46.332Z

Most notable moves today are in crack spreads, where fuel oil and gasoil cracks in europe lost almost $1 from the close of yesterday. In heavy fuel oil there seems to be a sense of profit taking as sweet/sour crude differential has retraced a little of late as well. On this, we have heard lots from minor Opec members but non from Saudis as yet, hence it is still not a certainty what they will do

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-46937937136392196462009-02-24T12:26:00.000Z2009-02-24T14:16:27.063Z

The theme yesterday in equities spilled over into the oil complex as we saw benchmark crude prices come off a touch even as we approach potential OPEC cuts. As SFOT peeped into his portfolio, he is most annoyed at his timing of dipping his toes into the integrated oil majors a touch too early. However, revisiting this trade he is likely to hold on to this for now as refining margins are still

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-42143524626008817602009-02-23T12:12:00.000Z2009-02-23T13:03:42.388Z

CFTC data this week paints a very dull picture overall, except that large trader have covered some shorts and gone a little longer in futures but have reduced net length when combined with options. SFOT is happy to be long of Z9 Brent futures still but finds it hard to add to this length at this juncture. While fuel oil has given back a little of the gains, gasoil continues to lose its value in

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-59580682651333969322009-02-20T11:41:00.000Z2009-02-20T13:06:10.427Z

The equity carnage continues and macro economics numbers today continue to show europe and canada weakening. The Swiss are now having their own problem with Swiss banks and US authorities as pointed out by Mr FX. Crude prices are not spared as crude has lost over USD1 as we speak.While SFOT do not put too much emphasis into his trading on weekly DOE data, the fact that Cushing has finally stopped

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-30475649222703457472009-02-19T11:47:00.000Z2009-02-19T12:38:19.834Z

Having kicked off this blog only a few weeks ago, readers might have noticed there has barely been a mention of price direction views. While SFOT is a relative value driven trader, he occasionally dips into flat price via technical signals or flows. There is nothing significant showing up on his proprietary price indicator now, however, the continued relative movements of differential within the

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-33782700540539401292009-02-18T13:09:00.000Z2009-02-18T14:16:39.230Z

Following the extremely weak Q4 GDP in Japan, Taiwan has also shown an extremely horrendous Q4 GDP figure this morning coming in at -8.36%. These are numbers well publicised in the press as multi year lows and possible even depressionary type. As highlighted by macroman in his blog today, Indonesia and Hong Kong have not been spared the brutality of this global contraction. In the oil barrel, one

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-44159226884072319122009-02-17T13:46:00.000Z2009-02-17T14:18:58.943Z

Despite this recent weakness in crude prices, refining margins for oil remains strong. Heavy fuel oil and light ends(naphtha, gasoline) remains the key support while middle distillate continues to weaken. Given this theme seems likely to continue for the near term, SFOT likes dipping into the equity world and get long of BP or Exxon with this pullback.Otherwise the very much criticized front

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-90348076254839443342009-02-16T12:19:00.001Z2009-02-16T12:35:31.461Z

The continued strength of the sour crude complex continues as we ease into another potential OPEC output cut in March. At the moment, it is not just middle east crude that is leading the charge. European and US sour crude differentials to sweet crude is also at its narrowest ever. When analysing this, we have to take into account the massive distortion in WTI as this is normally a sweet

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-2044547118634542942009-02-13T12:56:00.000Z2009-02-13T14:32:29.430Z

OPEC has lowered their oil demand forecast again, this coming just one month before they are scheduled to meet again. I guess this will probably tilt their decision to cut output further in the March meeting given they have been unable to stop the imbalance of excess crude stocks with their previous cuts. This is panning out fairly well within SFOT's scenario that OPEC has to implement more cuts

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-25589548552785571202009-02-11T19:28:00.000Z2009-02-12T13:42:49.912Z

It is a big surprise to many that Gasoline stocks have drawn yesterday in the US. However, that demand has been responding to the lower prices is not a surprise, and that refining margins will be strong due to Gasoline and heavy fuel oil are set to continue for the forseeable future. Yesterday's data in the US not only highlights the supply/demand picture in the US, but similar pictures are also

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-9255193482755032302009-02-06T11:48:00.000Z2009-02-06T13:06:42.857Z

The eye catching move today is the weakness of the middle distillates. European gasoil cracks are now at its lowest in 1 year. Stocks of Jet and heating oil in both Asia and Europe are reportedly filling storage to the brim and this having serious pressure on crack spreads in front end with probably no end in sight.Reports are in showing strong Baltic dry index over the past few days, which has

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-19536923596668110232009-02-05T13:17:00.000Z2009-02-05T14:27:30.206Z

Whilst we are digesting DOE data, BOE has cut rates by 50bps while ECB has stayed unchanged. ADP payroll on wed was better than expected but nevertheless weak, and friday's NFP will be another ugly number. Yesterday's improve Gasoline demand on the week suggest we might be heading for a gasoline crack recovery, but sources suggest the small stock build was mainly due to refiners stocking up due

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-47666248778780143732009-02-04T13:04:00.000Z2009-02-04T13:35:37.209Z

It's DOE day and i can't help but think the significance of this is now reaching the equivalent of our monthly NFP, only that we have this on a weekly basis. That China has begun its strategic oil reserves should be a significant boost to the market in a neutral/bull run, but alas, the market seems very tired of late. Whilst API reported a massive 8mio bbl build in crude stocks, of which 2mio was

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-56610224207287961782009-02-03T13:21:00.000Z2009-02-03T13:35:59.218Z

Refining margins are strong Crack spreads in gasoline and heat has given up part of its strength, presumably on profit taking and words that strikers are making progress in negotiations with Shell in the US. These though are masking the fact that refining margins have been extremely strong, and remains very much so. Physical traders have pointed out Naphtha as the leader in strength, followed by

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-41301540171409777122009-02-02T13:28:00.000Z2009-02-02T14:12:11.373Z

WTI or Brent: One of the most talked about issue now being the status of WTI being a price leader. Much has been written about this recently, even appearing in an FT article http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/354bec6a-e36f-11dd-a5cf-0000779fd2ac.html. This, in my view, will be an on going discussion for many months as Brent is declining in production and replacing WTI with Brent will only be a short

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7092518293924816407.post-14283707621916130172009-02-02T11:55:00.000Z2009-02-02T14:11:31.806Z

Here is it, the birth of yet another blog. As this is an oil trading related blog, contents in here will be very much oil specific, with references to other asset classes on a macro theme at times. A short description can be found in the 'About me' section.

SFOThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.com0